Boeing is two years into a turnaround after the 737 MAX door-plug accident. Deliveries are at their highest since 2018, cash flow has turned positive and the backlog is a record $715 billion. The price assumes the recovery reaches roughly $11 billion of annual free cash flow, which is about what the model expects.
The cash-flow model’s bear-to-bull range, the probability-weighted value, the price and its 52-week range. The copper line marks the base case; the fine dotted line is today’s close.
Written on October 20, 2026, before its third-quarter results later this month. Figures are from the company’s filings and releases unless noted. Not investment advice. The author holds BA shares.
Boeing Commercial Airplanes builds the 737, 767, 777 and 787; Defense, Space & Security builds military aircraft, satellites and weapons; Global Services supports both fleets with parts and maintenance, its most profitable unit. With Airbus it shares a duopoly in large passenger jets, so demand is not the problem: production is.
Boeing delivered 171 aircraft in the second quarter, including 129 737 MAXs, and free cash flow turned positive at $631 million. It still reported a core loss, including a $280 million charge on the Air Force One program. The 737 is ramping toward 47 a month, with a new line in Everett and a next step to 52; the 787 is at 8 a month, held back by engine supply; the 777X remains on track for first delivery in 2027.
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM Jun 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $62.3B | $66.6B | $77.8B | $66.5B | $89.5B | $94.0B |
| Operating margin | −4.6% | −5.3% | −1.0% | −16.1% | 4.8% | 4.9% |
| Net income | −$4.2B | −$4.9B | −$2.2B | −$11.8B | $2.2B | $2.4B |
| Operating cash flow | −$3.4B | $3.5B | $6.0B | −$12.1B | $1.1B | $3.6B |
| Capital spending | $1.0B | $1.2B | $1.5B | $2.2B | $2.9B | $3.8B |
| Free cash flow | −$4.4B | $2.3B | $4.4B | −$14.3B | −$1.9B | −$0.2B |
Boeing lost money every year from 2019 to 2024. The 2025 profit includes the gain on selling its Jeppesen navigation business, so the turnaround shows up more clearly in cash flow than in earnings.
Debt is about $45.6 billion against $20.0 billion of cash in June, down from over $50 billion. Shareholders’ equity only recently turned positive after years of losses. The 2024 equity raise and asset sales were used to protect the investment-grade rating.
Boeing’s profits are still distorted by the recovery, so the model works from a free cash flow path.
| Assumption | Base case | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Free cash flow, 2026–2030 | $2B, $6B, $9B, $10.5B, $11.5B | 2026 guidance, then production ramps toward 47–52 a month |
| Then | Grows 6%, fading to 3% by year 10 | Deliveries level off, then long-run economic growth |
| Discount rate | 9.7% | Beta 1.35, about 23% debt at 6% |
| Net debt | $25.6B | June 30, 2026 |
| Bear | Base | Bull | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Free cash flow by 2030 | $7.5B | $11.5B | $14B |
| Discount rate | 10.7% | 9.7% | 8.7% |
| Value per share | $105 | $197 | $291 |
| Probability | 25% | 50% | 25% |
Weighted 25/50/25: $197.
| Discount rate | 8.0% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 9.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Value per share | $280 | $251 | $226 | $205 |
Every figure in this valuation comes from one model script, rerun and checked against this page each time the site is built. The XLSX model rebuilds it in live formulas: change any blue input and every year’s cash flow, the bridge to the value, the scenarios and the sensitivity table recalculate.
The price implies free cash flow of roughly $11 billion a year by 2030, almost exactly the base case and close to the level Boeing reached before 2019. The market is pricing in a successful recovery, but not more than that.
| Risk | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| Quality and the FAA | Any new incident could halt the production ramp again. |
| Supply chain | Engines (787) and parts beyond 52 a month on the 737. |
| Fixed-price defense programs | Air Force One and others have produced repeated charges. |
| Labor | Engineering union talks ahead of an October contract expiry. |
Upside: faster rate increases, the 737-7 and -10 certifications, and the 777X entering service in 2027.
Boeing’s backlog guarantees demand; the value depends on building planes at the planned rate and quality.
What would change the value: Monthly 737 and 787 production rates, FAA decisions and free cash flow against guidance are the inputs to watch.
Ranges, not three cases. The expected value is the average of 4,000 runs of this report’s own model, with every input drawn from a range: the base case is the middle, and the bear and bull cases are the 10th and 90th percentiles. Business inputs move together; the discount rate moves on its own. The 25/50/25 weighting in the valuation section gives $197. How the ranges work
Two different questions. The rating is relative: it asks whether the stock is cheaper or dearer than the S&P 500 on the same assumptions. The absolute view asks whether it is worth its price at all: on its own the stock trades within 10% of our estimated value.
On the same assumptions every report uses (a 5.15% Treasury yield and a 4.5% equity premium), the S&P 500 itself is worth about 68% of its price. The rating compares each stock with that: Buy if it is at least 15% cheaper than the market on this basis, Sell if at least 15% dearer, Hold in between. It is the same rule for every company, whoever owns it. The rating is the same whether the index is assumed to grow 6% or 10% a year. How ratings work
| Measure | Boeing | Industry median | Rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth, last fiscal year | 34.5% | 9.8% | 1 of 12 | Better than the median |
| Operating margin | 4.9% | 10.6% | 11 of 12 | Worse than the median |
| Price to earnings | 60.9× | 25.3× | 11 of 12 | Worse than the median |
| Free cash flow yield | −0.1% | 3.6% | 11 of 12 | Worse than the median |
Peers: the 11 other S&P 500 companies in Aerospace & Defense with complete data (AXON, GD, GE, HII, HWM, LHX, LMT, NOC, RTX, TDG, TXT). Last twelve months where reported, from SEC filings; prices from the latest close. A lower price-to-earnings ratio ranks higher. These figures update with each data run; the rating does not.
Demand is guaranteed by the backlog; Boeing has to build the planes.