Agent 03 · Online ratings + Kelly
Bets are capped at $500, as real bookmakers limit winning customers. Each dot is a club: its hidden true strength (across) against the bettor's learned rating (up). A tight diagonal means it has figured the league out.
The league
Twenty made-up clubs each have a hidden strength that drifts during the season and partly resets between seasons. Results are random around those strengths, with a home advantage and plenty of draws. The bookmaker estimates them too, with a lag, and adds a 5% margin to its prices.
How it learns
Before each match the bettor forecasts home win, draw and away win from its ratings. After the match it nudges both clubs' ratings, the home advantage and the draw rate in the direction that would have made the real result more likely. Big upsets cause big corrections.
Why most bettors lose
A bet only pays over time when your probability beats the bookmaker's price by more than its margin. Against a sharp bookmaker that edge rarely exists, and the honest answer is to bet almost nothing. Fractional Kelly sizing keeps the bettor alive while its ratings are still wrong.