Visa runs the world’s largest card network, moving more than $4 trillion a quarter between banks, shops and shoppers, at a profit margin few businesses match. The shares are at a record. The question is how much growth is left to pay for.
Today’s close against the report’s numbers, updated every weekday. The analysis is as of October 22, 2026; the rating as of October 22, 2026. Both change only when the report is revised.
The cash-flow model’s bear-to-bull range, the probability-weighted value, the price, its 52-week range and the analysts’ average target. The copper line marks the base case; the fine dotted line is today’s close.
Written on October 22, 2026, ahead of its fiscal fourth-quarter results on October 27. Figures are from the company’s filings and releases unless noted. Not investment advice. The author holds no V shares directly.
Visa does not lend money or issue cards. Banks issue Visa cards, and Visa charges a small fee on each payment that runs over its network, plus more for cross-border payments, currency conversion and services such as fraud tools. Costs barely rise with volume, so most extra revenue becomes profit.
Growth comes from cash and checks moving to cards, travel abroad, and newer flows such as payments between businesses and to individuals.
In the quarter to June 30, net revenue rose 14% to $11.6 billion and adjusted earnings 11% to $3.32 a share. Payments volume grew 10% in constant dollars and cross-border volume 13%. Visa bought back $4.9 billion of stock.
Fiscal fourth-quarter and full-year results come on October 27, with the outlook for fiscal 2027.
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM Mar 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $24.1B | $29.3B | $32.7B | $35.9B | $40.0B | $43.0B |
| Operating margin | 65.6% | 64.2% | 64.3% | 65.7% | 60.0% | 61.1% |
| Net income | $12.3B | $15.0B | $17.3B | $19.7B | $20.1B | $22.2B |
| Operating cash flow | $15.2B | $18.8B | $20.8B | $19.9B | $23.1B | $22.8B |
| Capital spending | $0.7B | $1.0B | $1.1B | $1.3B | $1.5B | $1.6B |
| Free cash flow | $14.5B | $17.9B | $19.7B | $18.7B | $21.6B | $21.2B |
The margin dipped in fiscal 2025 because of provisions for U.S. litigation over card fees; underlying profitability has barely changed. Fiscal years end September 30; the last column is to March 2026. The quarterly view shows each quarter.
At June 30 Visa had $23.9 billion of debt and $13.9 billion of cash and investments, about $10 billion of net debt. It returns nearly all of its free cash flow through buybacks and a dividend of $0.67 a quarter, and has about 1.90 billion diluted shares.
| Assumption | Base case | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Net revenue, fiscal 2026 | about $45B | Three quarters reported plus an estimate for the fourth |
| Growth, 2027 and 2028 | 11%, then 10% | Recent pace; fades to 3% by year 10 |
| Operating margin | 62% rising to 63% | Reported, including litigation provisions |
| Reinvestment | $1 for every $4 of new revenue | Technology and acquisitions |
| Discount rate | 8.7% | Beta 0.83, 3% debt |
| Terminal growth | 3.0% | With a 40% return on new capital |
| Bear | Base | Bull | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Growth, 2027 / 2028 | 7% / 6% | 11% / 10% | 13% / 12% |
| Long-run operating margin | 58% | 63% | 66% |
| Discount rate | 9.7% | 8.7% | 7.7% |
| Value per share | $190 | $291 | $405 |
| Probability | 25% | 50% | 25% |
Weighted 25/50/25: $294. The bear case is fee regulation in the U.S. and new payment rails taking share; the bull case is faster growth in business payments and value-added services.
| Discount rate | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 9.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Value per share | $372 | $335 | $304 | $278 | $256 |
Every figure in this valuation comes from one model script, rerun and checked against this page each time the site is built. The XLSX model rebuilds it in live formulas: change any blue input and every year’s cash flow, the bridge to the value, the scenarios and the sensitivity table recalculate.
| To justify the price, you need | Against |
|---|---|
| Revenue growth of about 18% a year for two years, then the same fade | 11% and 10% |
| Or a discount rate of about 7.0% | 8.7% |
No plausible margin closes the gap; the price needs either faster growth for longer or a lower required return than the model uses. Analysts average about $426, close to the price.
| Risk | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| Fee regulation | Proposals such as the Credit Card Competition Act would route payments over rival networks. |
| Antitrust | The U.S. Justice Department’s debit-card case and merchant litigation. |
| New rails | Real-time bank payments and stablecoins could bypass cards in some markets. |
| Travel | Cross-border fees are the most profitable and the most cyclical. |
Upside: business-to-business payments, value-added services, and Visa itself carrying stablecoin and AI-agent payments on its network.
Visa grows double digits at a margin above 60% with little capital. The price, at a record, needs growth of about 18% a year or a required return near 7%; on the same rule as every other company, that is close to the market, not cheaper.
What would change the value: Fiscal fourth-quarter results and the 2027 outlook on October 27, and any U.S. card-fee legislation, are the next inputs.
Ranges, not three cases. The expected value is the average of 4,000 runs of this report’s own model, with every input drawn from a range: the base case is the middle, and the bear and bull cases are the 10th and 90th percentiles. Business inputs move together; the discount rate moves on its own. The 25/50/25 weighting in the valuation section gives $294. How the ranges work
Two different questions. The rating is relative: it asks whether the stock is cheaper or dearer than the S&P 500 on the same assumptions. The absolute view asks whether it is worth its price at all: on its own the stock trades above our estimated value, which is 30% below the price.
On the same assumptions every report uses (a 5.15% Treasury yield and a 4.5% equity premium), the S&P 500 itself is worth about 68% of its price. The rating compares each stock with that: Buy if it is at least 15% cheaper than the market on this basis, Sell if at least 15% dearer, Hold in between. It is the same rule for every company, whoever owns it. The rating is the same whether the index is assumed to grow 6% or 10% a year. How ratings work
Against the Street: Analysts average about $426, valuing Visa on about 30 times earnings. This model uses an 8.7% discount rate; at about 7% it matches the price.
The business is near flawless; the price assumes it gets better.
| What | Figures | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Latest results | $11.6B (Net revenue, fiscal Q3, +14%), $3.32 (Adjusted EPS, +11%), +10% (Payments volume, constant dollars), +13% (Cross-border volume) and others | Fiscal Q3 2026 results (8-K); Q4 results date |
| The numbers (five-year table) | Five years of annual figures and the last twelve months | SEC XBRL company facts; latest: 10-K for the period to 2025-09-30, 10-Q for the period to 2026-06-30 |
| Price at writing | $414.26 (Close, Oct 22, 2026) | Yahoo Finance; the time of the quote is stated beside the price |
| Discount rate inputs | 10-year Treasury 5.15%, equity risk premium 4.5% | Fixed for every report so they can be compared; How ratings work |
| Valuation | Every value, case and sensitivity | This site’s model: XLSX, CSV |
| Checked by hand | 11 figures on October 23, 2026 | All match. Audit log |
| Input | Bear (10th percentile) | Base (median) | Bull (90th percentile) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Growth, first forecast year | 7.0% | 11.0% | 13.0% |
| Growth, second forecast year | 6.0% | 10.0% | 12.0% |
| Operating margin, near term | 60.0% | 62.0% | 63.0% |
| Operating margin, long run | 58.0% | 63.0% | 66.0% |
| Discount rate | 9.7% | 8.7% | 7.7% |
| Simulation result | |
|---|---|
| Expected value (average of 4,000 runs) | $288.09 |
| Likely range, 10th to 90th percentile | $218.28 to $361.43 |
| Median | $283.62 |
| Chance the value is above the price | 3% |
| Chance it is cheaper than the S&P 500 | 52% |
Each input is drawn from a split normal: its bear and bull values are the 10th and 90th percentiles, so the two sides can differ. Business inputs share a common factor (correlation 0.6); the discount rate moves on its own. Inputs not listed are held at their base value. How the simulation works.