SpaceX

Space is the original business: Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launches for NASA, the military and commercial customers, and Starship, the fully reusable rocket meant to cut launch costs by an order of magnitude. Connectivity is Starlink, internet from more than 9,000 satellites for homes, ships, airlines and phones. Super Intelligence (SI) came with the purchase of Elon Musk’s xAI in February 2026: the Grok models, the X platform, the Cursor coding tool, and data centers that lease computing to other AI labs.

SpaceX listed on Nasdaq as SPCX on June 12, 2026, at $135 a share, valuing it at about $1.77 trillion in the largest IPO on record.

Third-quarter revenue of $14.6 billion beat estimates by about $1.7 billion. SI revenue was $7.6 billion, including $608 million from Cursor, as Anthropic, Google and others rented its computing. Starlink added 1.6 million subscribers to reach 13.6 million, fewer than analysts expected, but its operating profit nearly doubled to $2.4 billion. Rockets earned $1.8 billion and roughly broke even.

Net income was $4.4 billion ($0.35 a share). Management guided first-quarter 2027 revenue to $33–37 billion, more than double this quarter, as computing capacity grows from 1.7 GW to about 3 GW by year-end. Starship reached orbit on Flight 14 and deployed V3 Starlink satellites. The shares rose about 10% the next day.

Over the first nine months of 2026, operations brought in $13.1 billion of cash, but capital spending was $48.1 billion, almost all of it AI data centers. Fourth-quarter capex is guided at $35–40 billion. Over the last twelve months revenue was about $23 billion and the company lost about $8.9 billion, because earlier quarters carried large losses.

SpaceX held $89.9 billion of cash and short-term investments against $38.8 billion of debt and leases in September, thanks to the IPO. Analysts expect debt to rise sharply as the data-center build continues.

Musk owns about 42% of the shares but about 82% of the votes through ten-vote Class B shares, so public shareholders cannot change the strategy. Insiders are locked up for a year; other pre-IPO investors can start selling around December 8, which could add supply. Musk has also said a merger with Tesla is possible but not certain.

A ten-year cash-flow model means little for a company whose revenue may triple in a year, so this report values SpaceX on its 2030 earning power: revenue, operating margin and a multiple, discounted back at 12% a year, plus the free cash flow between now and then. That starts deeply negative (an estimated −$68 billion this year, from nine months of reported cash flow and the guided fourth-quarter capital spending) and is assumed to rise in a straight line to 80% of 2030 after-tax profit.

Weighted 25/50/25, the cases give $144. Net cash of about $51 billion and 13.57 billion shares are included.

That sounds extreme, but management is guiding to a $140 billion annual pace by early 2027 and has talked about $500 billion to $1 trillion by the end of 2027 if its AI business scales. The price sits between the base and bull cases: it needs the AI buildout to keep paying back as fast as management says, which is under a year per data center today.

Upside: Starlink Mobile (22 million monthly users), reusable Starship lowering costs for everything else, and AI revenue scaling as guided.

SpaceX’s value now depends more on its AI data centers than on rockets or Starlink. Its free cash flow is deeply negative while it builds, which this model counts.

What would change the value: Revenue against the $33–37 billion first-quarter guidance, the pace of capital spending, and the December lock-up expiry are the next inputs.