Firefly builds small rockets, the Blue Ghost lunar lander and spacecraft for NASA and the Pentagon. Revenue is growing fast and the backlog is $1.5 billion, but it loses money and its Alpha rocket has a mixed record. The shares are down about 70% from their high.
Today’s close against the report’s numbers, updated every weekday. The analysis is as of October 21, 2026; the rating as of October 22, 2026. Both change only when the report is revised.
The scenario model’s bear-to-bull range, the probability-weighted value, the price, its 52-week range and the analysts’ average target. The copper line marks the base case; the fine dotted line is today’s close.
Written on October 21, 2026, before its third-quarter results in November. Figures are from the company’s filings and releases unless noted. Not investment advice. The author holds FLY shares.
Firefly, based in Cedar Park, Texas, has four product lines. Alpha is a small rocket that carries about a ton to low orbit. Blue Ghost is a lunar lander: in March 2025 it made the first fully successful commercial landing on the Moon. Elytra is a spacecraft that can serve as a satellite or carry payloads around the Moon. Eclipse, a larger rocket built with Northrop Grumman, is due to fly no earlier than 2027. Its SciTec division adds defense software for missile warning, which gives Firefly a role in the Golden Dome missile-defense program.
Firefly went public in August 2025 at $45 a share, raising $868 million at a valuation of about $10 billion.
Second-quarter revenue reached $117.7 million, almost all from spacecraft work for NASA lunar missions and defense. Launch revenue was only $9.4 million, because Alpha flies rarely. Net loss was $92.3 million. Management kept 2026 revenue guidance at $420–450 million, with 95% of the midpoint already booked, and plans three Alpha launches this year, with Flight 8 in the fourth quarter.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $55M | $61M | $160M |
| Operating margin | −238.8% | −344.5% | −163.1% |
| Net income | −$135M | −$231M | −$298M |
| Operating cash flow | −$93M | −$158M | −$205M |
| Capital spending | $77M | $33M | $33M |
| Free cash flow | −$171M | −$190M | −$238M |
| Latest | |
|---|---|
| Revenue, last twelve months | $287M |
| Net loss, last twelve months | −$370M |
| Gross margin, Q2 2026 | 20.3% |
| Alpha flight record | 7 flights: 3 successes, 2 partial, 2 failures |
| Blue Ghost | 1 landing, 1 success; Mission 2 and a far-side mission in development |
Alpha’s record is the weak point: a failure in April 2025 and an explosion during a ground test in September 2025 grounded it until a successful flight in March 2026. Launch is what would lift margins, so the cadence of Alpha flights matters more than any single contract.
Firefly had $635 million of cash and an undrawn $305 million credit line in June. It has sold shares twice since the IPO, including an offering at $48 in May 2026, and registered shares for resale by former SciTec owners, which has weighed on the price. Expect more share sales before it turns profitable. AE Industrial Partners is the largest investor; Northrop Grumman invested $50 million alongside the Eclipse partnership.
With no profits yet, this report values Firefly on its 2030 revenue and the multiple of sales a profitable space company would command, discounted back at 15% a year, with more shares outstanding to fund the losses until then, and with the cash it burns until 2030 (about $0.2 billion this year, falling in a straight line to breakeven) subtracted.
| Bear | Base | Bull | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue in 2030 | $0.7B | $1.2B | $2.0B |
| Exit value to sales | 2× | 5× | 8× |
| Shares by 2030 | 200M | 185M | 180M |
| Value per share | $3 | $18 | $50 |
| Probability | 25% | 50% | 25% |
Weighted 25/50/25: $22. The range is wide on purpose: this is a company where one failed launch or one large contract changes the answer.
Every figure in this valuation comes from one model script, rerun and checked against this page each time the site is built. The XLSX model rebuilds it in live formulas: change any blue input and every year’s cash flow, the bridge to the value, the scenarios and the sensitivity table recalculate.
| To justify the price, you need | Against |
|---|---|
| About $1.15 billion of revenue in 2030 at 5× sales | $420–450 million guided for 2026 |
| Roughly 25% annual growth from here | 659% last quarter, from a small base |
The market now prices Firefly slightly below the base case, a big change from the $62 high, when it priced something close to the bull case.
| Risk | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| Launch failures | Alpha has failed or partly failed four times in seven flights. |
| Losses and dilution | About $370 million lost in the last year; more share sales are likely. |
| Competition | SpaceX rideshares undercut small rockets; Rocket Lab is further ahead. |
| Government budgets | NASA and defense contracts drive most revenue. |
Upside: Golden Dome and missile-warning work through SciTec, more NASA lunar missions, and Eclipse giving Firefly a medium rocket in 2027.
The backlog is strong; launch reliability and cash burn decide the outcome. The range of values is wide because one launch or contract changes the answer.
What would change the value: Alpha Flight 8 and the third-quarter results in November are the next tests.
Ranges, not three cases. The expected value is the average of 4,000 runs of this report’s own model, with every input drawn from a range: the base case is the middle, and the bear and bull cases are the 10th and 90th percentiles. Business inputs move together; the discount rate moves on its own. The 25/50/25 weighting in the valuation section gives $22. How the ranges work
Two different questions. The rating is relative: it asks whether the stock is cheaper or dearer than the S&P 500 on the same assumptions. The absolute view asks whether it is worth its price at all: on its own the stock trades 26% below our estimated value.
On the same assumptions every report uses (a 5.15% Treasury yield and a 4.5% equity premium), the S&P 500 itself is worth about 68% of its price. The rating compares each stock with that: Buy if it is at least 15% cheaper than the market on this basis, Sell if at least 15% dearer, Hold in between. It is the same rule for every company, whoever owns it. The rating is the same whether the index is assumed to grow 6% or 10% a year. How ratings work
Against the Street: Analysts average about $38, closer to this model’s bull case; the base case here assumes about $1.2 billion of 2030 revenue at 5× sales.
| Measure | Firefly Aerospace | Industry median | Rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth, last fiscal year | 163.0% | 10.0% | 1 of 13 | Better than the median |
| Operating margin | −163.1% | 10.4% | 13 of 13 | Worse than the median |
| Free cash flow yield | −7.1% | 3.2% | 13 of 13 | Worse than the median |
Peers: the 12 other S&P 500 companies in Aerospace & Defense with complete data (AXON, BA, GD, GE, HII, HWM, LHX, LMT, NOC, RTX, TDG, TXT). Last twelve months where reported, from SEC filings; prices from the latest close. A lower price-to-earnings ratio ranks higher. These figures update with each data run; the rating does not.
The backlog is strong; the rocket record and the cash burn decide the outcome.
| What | Figures | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Latest results | $117.7M (Revenue, Q2 2026, +659%), $1.5B (Record backlog), 20.3% (Gross margin), −$61M (Adjusted EBITDA) and others | Q2 2026 results summary; Firefly investor news |
| The numbers (five-year table) | Five years of annual figures and the last twelve months | SEC XBRL company facts; latest: 10-K for the period to 2025-12-31, 10-Q for the period to 2026-06-30 |
| Price at writing | $17.41 (Midday, Oct 21, 2026) | Yahoo Finance; the time of the quote is stated beside the price |
| Discount rate inputs | 10-year Treasury 5.15%, equity risk premium 4.5% | Fixed for every report so they can be compared; How ratings work |
| Valuation | Every value, case and sensitivity | This site’s model: XLSX, CSV |
| Checked by hand | Not yet | Reports are added to the audit log as they are revised |
| Input | Bear (10th percentile) | Base (median) | Bull (90th percentile) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue, target year | $1B | $1B | $2B |
| Exit multiple | 2× | 5× | 8× |
| net | 0.0% | $0B | $0B |
| shares | $0B | $0B | $0B |
| Simulation result | |
|---|---|
| Expected value (average of 4,000 runs) | $21.98 |
| Likely range, 10th to 90th percentile | $4.01 to $45.34 |
| Median | $17.89 |
| Chance the value is above the price | 51% |
| Chance it is cheaper than the S&P 500 | 68% |
Each input is drawn from a split normal: its bear and bull values are the 10th and 90th percentiles, so the two sides can differ. Business inputs share a common factor (correlation 0.6); the discount rate is the same in every case, so it is not drawn. Inputs not listed are held at their base value. How the simulation works.