ExxonMobil is the largest Western oil company: record Permian output, the fast-growing Guyana fields, and refineries and chemical plants. Brent crude is near $110 after attacks on Saudi targets, and the shares are at a record. The question is what oil price the shares assume.
Today’s close against the report’s numbers, updated every weekday. The analysis is as of October 22, 2026; the rating as of October 22, 2026. Both change only when the report is revised.
The cash-flow model’s bear-to-bull range, the probability-weighted value, the price, its 52-week range and the analysts’ average target. The copper line marks the base case; the fine dotted line is today’s close.
Written on October 22, 2026, ahead of its third-quarter results on October 30. Figures are from the company’s filings and releases unless noted. Not investment advice. The author holds no XOM shares directly.
Upstream produces about 4.5 million barrels of oil and gas a day, more than 1.8 million of it in the Permian Basin after the 2024 purchase of Pioneer, and a fast-growing share from Guyana. Energy Products refines crude into fuels; Chemical Products and Specialty Products make plastics, lubricants and other materials.
Upstream earns most of the profit and moves with oil and gas prices; refining moves with fuel margins, which often rise when crude supply is disrupted.
Second-quarter earnings were $14.5 billion ($3.48 a share) on higher oil prices and record Permian output, with free cash flow of $17.2 billion and $9.4 billion returned to shareholders. Exxon plans Permian growth of about 9% a year through 2030, and a fifth Guyana production vessel should start in the fourth quarter, adding 250,000 barrels a day of capacity.
Its third-quarter guide points to much higher refining margins (+$4.5 billion) but lower oil realizations (−$1.3 billion) than the second quarter. Brent has since jumped to about $110 after Houthi attacks on Saudi targets. Results come on October 30.
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM Jun 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $285.6B | $413.7B | $344.6B | $349.6B | $332.2B | $368.8B |
| Operating margin | 11.3% | 19.0% | 15.6% | 14.3% | 12.6% | 12.5% |
| Net income | $23.0B | $55.7B | $36.0B | $33.7B | $28.8B | $32.8B |
| Operating cash flow | $48.1B | $76.8B | $55.4B | $55.0B | $52.0B | $59.7B |
| Capital spending | $12.1B | $18.4B | $21.9B | $24.3B | $28.4B | $29.2B |
| Free cash flow | $36.1B | $58.4B | $33.5B | $30.7B | $23.6B | $30.6B |
2022 shows what a price spike does: earnings of $56 billion. Since then profits have settled near $30 billion with Brent at $70–80, while capital spending rose to about $29 billion for the Permian and Guyana. The quarterly view shows each quarter.
At June 30 ExxonMobil had about $42 billion of debt and $11 billion of cash, about $32 billion of net debt: very low for a company of its size. It pays $1.03 a share each quarter and bought back $5.1 billion of stock in the second quarter.
| Assumption | Base case | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | about $370B | With oil well above its five-year average |
| Growth, 2027 and 2028 | −5%, then flat | Oil prices ease from the spike; fades to 3% by year 10 |
| Operating margin | 13% easing to 12% | In 2025, with Brent near $69, it was 12.6% |
| Net investment | $6B a year, falling | Capital spending above depreciation |
| Discount rate | 8.5% | Beta 0.80, this site’s floor (measured 0.30), 5% debt |
| Terminal growth | 3.0% | With a 12% return on new capital |
| Bear | Base | Bull | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Growth, 2027 / 2028 | −15% / 0% | −5% / 0% | 3% / 2% |
| Long-run operating margin | 10% | 12% | 14% |
| Discount rate | 9.5% | 8.5% | 7.5% |
| Value per share | $53 | $89 | $151 |
| Probability | 25% | 50% | 25% |
Weighted 25/50/25: $95. The bear case is oil back near $60; the bull case is today’s prices lasting, with Guyana and the Permian growing on top.
| Discount rate | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 9.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Value per share | $121 | $108 | $97 | $89 | $81 |
Every figure in this valuation comes from one model script, rerun and checked against this page each time the site is built. The XLSX model rebuilds it in live formulas: change any blue input and every year’s cash flow, the bridge to the value, the scenarios and the sensitivity table recalculate.
| To justify the price, you need | Against |
|---|---|
| Revenue growth of about 15% a year for two years, then the same fade | −5% and 0% |
| Or a long-run operating margin of about 23% | 12% |
| Or a discount rate of about 5.7% | 8.5% |
The price needs oil to stay near its current spike or rise further: margins roughly twice the 2025 level. Even the analysts’ average, about $168, is below the price.
| Risk | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| Oil prices | A peace deal or calmer shipping lanes could take $30 off Brent quickly. |
| Demand | Electric vehicles and slower growth in China weigh on long-run demand. |
| Costs | Capital spending of about $29 billion a year must earn its return. |
| Policy | Climate rules and windfall taxes in some countries. |
Upside: a longer disruption in the Gulf, Guyana growth, Permian efficiency, and low-carbon businesses such as lithium and carbon capture.
ExxonMobil has low debt, record Permian output and Guyana growing, but the price needs today’s spike in oil prices to last. On 2025’s margins, with Brent near $69, the value is about half the price.
What would change the value: Third-quarter results on October 30 and whatever happens to Brent, now near $110 on Middle East attacks, move the value most.
Ranges, not three cases. The expected value is the average of 4,000 runs of this report’s own model, with every input drawn from a range: the base case is the middle, and the bear and bull cases are the 10th and 90th percentiles. Business inputs move together; the discount rate moves on its own. The 25/50/25 weighting in the valuation section gives $95. How the ranges work
Two different questions. The rating is relative: it asks whether the stock is cheaper or dearer than the S&P 500 on the same assumptions. The absolute view asks whether it is worth its price at all: on its own the stock trades above our estimated value, which is 48% below the price.
On the same assumptions every report uses (a 5.15% Treasury yield and a 4.5% equity premium), the S&P 500 itself is worth about 68% of its price. The rating compares each stock with that: Buy if it is at least 15% cheaper than the market on this basis, Sell if at least 15% dearer, Hold in between. It is the same rule for every company, whoever owns it. The rating depends on that assumption: it would be Hold if the index grows 6% a year and Sell at 10%, against 8% here. How ratings work
Against the Street: Analysts average about $168, also below the price. This model goes further, assuming oil eases and margins return to the 2025 level.
| Measure | ExxonMobil | Industry median | Rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth, last fiscal year | −5.0% | 3.9% | 17 of 20 | Worse than the median |
| Operating margin | 12.5% | 22.9% | 15 of 20 | Worse than the median |
| Price to earnings | 23.0× | 16.8× | 16 of 21 | Worse than the median |
| Free cash flow yield | 4.1% | 5.8% | 14 of 17 | Worse than the median |
Peers: the 20 other S&P 500 companies in Energy with complete data (APA, BKR, COP, CVX, DVN, EOG, EQT, EXE, FANG, HAL, KMI, MPC, OKE, OXY, PSX, SLB, TPL, TRGP, VLO, WMB). Last twelve months where reported, from SEC filings; prices from the latest close. A lower price-to-earnings ratio ranks higher. These figures update with each data run; the rating does not.
The business is strong; the price assumes $110 oil lasts.
| What | Figures | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Latest results | $14.5B (Earnings, Q2 2026), $3.48 (Earnings per share), $17.2B (Free cash flow), $9.4B (Dividends and buybacks) and others | Q2 2026 results; Q3 earnings considerations (8-K); Oil price, October 22 |
| The numbers (five-year table) | Five years of annual figures and the last twelve months | SEC XBRL company facts; latest: 10-K for the period to 2025-12-31, 10-Q for the period to 2026-06-30 |
| Price at writing | $178.19 (Close, Oct 22, 2026) | Yahoo Finance; the time of the quote is stated beside the price |
| Discount rate inputs | 10-year Treasury 5.15%, equity risk premium 4.5% | Fixed for every report so they can be compared; How ratings work |
| Valuation | Every value, case and sensitivity | This site’s model: XLSX, CSV |
| Checked by hand | 11 figures on October 23, 2026 | All match. Audit log |
| Input | Bear (10th percentile) | Base (median) | Bull (90th percentile) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Growth, first forecast year | -15.0% | -5.0% | 3.0% |
| Growth, second forecast year | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.0% |
| Operating margin, near term | 11.0% | 13.0% | 14.0% |
| Operating margin, long run | 10.0% | 12.0% | 14.0% |
| Discount rate | 9.5% | 8.5% | 7.5% |
| Simulation result | |
|---|---|
| Expected value (average of 4,000 runs) | $92.84 |
| Likely range, 10th to 90th percentile | $62.39 to $126.75 |
| Median | $90.07 |
| Chance the value is above the price | 1% |
| Chance it is cheaper than the S&P 500 | 13% |
Each input is drawn from a split normal: its bear and bull values are the 10th and 90th percentiles, so the two sides can differ. Business inputs share a common factor (correlation 0.6); the discount rate moves on its own. Inputs not listed are held at their base value. How the simulation works.