Anduril

Anduril was founded in 2017 by Palmer Luckey, Trae Stephens, Brian Schimpf (now CEO) and others. It designs and builds its own products and sells them, rather than waiting for the Pentagon to fund development. Its range includes the Fury collaborative combat aircraft, Roadrunner reusable interceptors, Barracuda low-cost cruise missiles, Ghost Shark underwater drones and surveillance towers, all linked by Lattice, its AI command software.

Production is moving to Arsenal-1, a plant of nearly $1 billion in Ohio designed to build up to 150 Fury aircraft a year.

Revenue has roughly doubled every year. In March 2026 the U.S. Army signed an enterprise agreement worth up to $20 billion over ten years that consolidates more than 120 contracts. Anduril is still loss-making: it guided to an operating loss of about $1.2 billion in 2026 as it builds factories.

Anduril does not publish full financial statements. The reported 2026 operating loss of about $1.2 billion reflects heavy spending on Arsenal-1 and new products; management has pointed to operating breakeven later in the decade.

Anduril was valued at $14 billion in August 2024, $30.5 billion in June 2025 and $61 billion in May 2026, when it raised $5 billion led by Thrive Capital and Andreessen Horowitz. An employee share sale that opened on October 13 values it at $90 billion ($94.80 a share). Talks about a round near $100 billion were reported in July but not confirmed. No S-1 has been filed.

Valued on 2030 earning power and discounted at 13% a year. The bull case gives it Palantir-like margins and a 35× multiple.

Weighted 25/50/25: about $28 billion, well below where private investors value it.

The values above are for the whole company in 2030. A private company that is still burning cash pays for it by selling new shares, and the money those buyers put in is theirs, not today’s owners’. So the value of a stake bought today is the whole-company value less the present value of the capital still to be raised. The table shows that for several amounts raised evenly over the next four years, discounted at the model’s 13%. “Share sold” is how much of the company those raises would buy at the last valuation of $90B; at a lower price, the share sold would be larger.

Private investors are paying for growth well beyond 2030, and for the chance that Anduril becomes a new prime contractor with software margins. Traditional defense primes such as L3Harris trade at a fraction of that multiple.

Upside: the Army agreement, collaborative combat aircraft orders and exports could keep revenue doubling.

Anduril is growing like a top software company, but the scenarios value it far below the $61–90 billion private marks. An IPO that starts from those marks would price in close to the bull case.

What would change the value: Fury production, the Army enterprise agreement and an S-1 with audited margins would show whether the private marks are justified.