What the Curve Is
Each point on the curve is the yield on a Treasury of a given maturity, from one month to thirty years. Normally it slopes upward: lenders want more to tie up money for longer, because more can go wrong over thirty years than over three months, from inflation to a change in Fed policy. That extra yield for time is called the term premium.
Short yields are anchored by the Federal Reserve’s policy rate. Long yields reflect where investors expect short rates to average over the life of the bond, plus that term premium.
The Curve Today
Yield by maturity, today against a month and a year ago.
Today’s Shape
The 10-year yields — and the 2-year —, so the curve slopes up by — between them. A year ago the 10-year was at —: long yields have moved — since.
The 10-Year Minus the 2-Year
Below zero, the curve is inverted.
Why Inversions Matter
When short yields rise above long ones, the curve is inverted. It happens when the Fed holds short rates high and investors expect it to cut later because the economy will weaken. An inverted 10-year minus 2-year spread came before most U.S. recessions since the 1970s, which is why it is watched so closely.
It is a signal, not a rule. The curve was inverted from mid-2022 to late 2024, the longest stretch on record, and the economy kept growing. Strong household finances and government spending did more to offset tight policy than the curve allowed for.
Takeaway. Read the curve as the market’s summary of rates and inflation, not as a forecast on its own. Its shape today says inflation risk, not recession, is what bond investors are pricing.
Figures in copper come straight from FRED and update every weekday; other figures are as of October 21, 2026. For education only, not investment advice.