Round 1 / 8Asset = sum of 10 hidden cards (1–13 each)Revealed sum 0
Public estimate 70.0 ± 11.8Position 0Cash $0P&L at your estimate $0
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Position limit ±12. Four traders arrive each round.
Why spreads exist
Some Traders Know More
Most traders here are noise: they buy or sell for their own reasons. Some are informed: they know the final value and only trade when your quote is wrong. Every trade with them loses money, so the spread you charge everyone else has to pay for it. More informed flow means wider spreads.
Bayesian updating
Trades Are Information
When someone buys at your ask, it is a little more likely the value is above it. The chart combines the revealed cards with every buy, sell and pass so far, using Bayes' rule, to show what the asset is probably worth.
The two quotes
Break-Even Versus Greedy
The break-even quote is where a buy at your ask is, on average, worth exactly your ask: in a competitive market you cannot charge more. The profit-maximising quote is wider. It trades less but earns more per trade, and it leans away from the position you already hold.
Educational only. Every result on this page comes from simulated data. Nothing here is investment, trading or betting advice.